Events

The China Lectures

The CSC China Lectures are part of the College's "Connecting China" initiative. The initiative aims to develop a more "China-ready" public service – one that understands Chinese perspectives and is well-equipped to engage with the Chinese. The China Lectures will be a platform for senior public officers to develop a deeper understanding of the complexities and dilemmas surrounding China's rise.

23 September 2011
Lecture on "A Changing China: Emerging Governance, Economic and Social Trends"
The rise of China has captured global debates for the past three decades. Defying critics’ predictions of its “coming collapse”, China’s GDP exceeded US$ 5.8 trillion in 2011—a thirty-fold increase from its GDP of US$ 189 billion in 1980. Its social development is just as remarkable. Poverty rates have plummeted by eighteen times since 1980 and standards of living have improved, characterised by falling infant mortality rates and increasing life expectancies.

But socio-economic changes ensued. From a communist economic system characterised by collective ownership and equal distribution of work and benefits, China’s market economy is now synonymous with social inequality where 45% of the country’s wealth are held by the top 10% of its population and where the average urban dweller has three times more disposal income than a rural dweller. Even as China’s burgeoning urban middle class is vying for luxury goods and housing, 100 million people, mostly concentrated in rural areas, continue to live below China’s poverty line of US$ 0.60 a day. Meanwhile, the growing consumption demands of China’s affluent urban segment continues to drive up prices of food and housing—exerting further pressures on stagnating rural incomes.

Social tensions are intensifying as social disparities continue to widen alongside China’s stellar economic growth. Coupled with the rise of mass democratisation, powered by the Internet and social media, and an increasingly globalised citizenry exposed to Western liberal ideals, such social tensions are pressurising China’s Central Government to reform or risk losing their political legitimacy that is founded upon the redistribution of wealth to create a harmonious, middle class society.

What are the implications of these emerging trends upon China’s future development and its policy reforms? This inaugural Symposium convenes experts in a stimulating forum that presents a rich spectrum of discourse and debates on the trajectory of China’s governance, and economic and social development and their policy implications in the context of emerging political, economic and social trends.

	Prof Wang Gungwu Chairman, East Asian Institute; University Professor, National University of Singapore Moderator, Q & A Plenary Session
	Prof Huang Jing Professor & Director, Centre on Asia and Globalisation, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore Presentation 1 — Sustaining China’s Political Stability: Building up Dams or Opening up Channels?
	Prof Xia Yeliang Professor of Economics, Peking University; Visiting Scholar, University of California, Los Angeles Presentation 2 — The Pending Economic Crisis for China: Risk, Pressure and Challenge
	Dr Li Bingqin Lecturer in Social Policy, London School of Economics Presentation 3 — Social Welfare for Economic Growth and Social Stability: The Experience of China

6 July 2011
Mr Cui Heping
Associate Researcher, Centre for Crisis Management Research, School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University

Lecture on "The Social Risks of an Economic Giant: An Analysis of China's Social Transformation through the Rise of Social Movements"
In 2010, China's GDP exceeded USD 5.8 trillion, surpassing Japan for the first time and placing China as the world's second largest economy after the U.S. China's speedy and sustained economic growth rate has defied the law of macroeconomic growth cycle and has captured the world's attention for the past three decades. But are there risks and vulnerabilities that lurk behind the stellar economic growth of this economic giant?

Escalating social tensions arising from rising unemployment, widening social disparities and conflicting stakeholder interests are exacerbating China's social risks. Along with its rapid topline economic growth, China's social transformation is characterised by increased incidences of social movements, whose causes, trajectories and influence remain enigmatic and continue to stimulate debates on their impact on China's investment climate, in particular, foreign direct investments in China and China's economic co-operation with the global market. Hence, there needs to be an objective evaluation of China's economic development in the context of its emerging social trends.

While thirty years of economic development policies have strategically transformed China's centuries-old agricultural economy into one characterised by modernisation, industrialisation and urbanisation, challenges continue to loom in the horizon. Apart from having to meet the social and economic needs of its enormous population of 1.3 billion, the social risks inherent within China's migratory labour, numbering 221 million, also pose an impediment for China's economic development. Despite its rapid GDP growth, China's per capita GDP is only a-tenth of Japan's and remains to be an impoverished country. Against this backdrop, how should the world perceive China's economic growth in the future? What are its opportunities and challenges?

This lecture aims to provide new insights into China's economic development in the long term through the lens of its social transformation.

About Mr Cui Heping
Mr Cui Heping is an Associate Researcher at Tsinghua University's Centre for Crisis Management Research, School of Public Policy and Management. Besides lecturing at its School of Continuing Education on 'Public Security and Emergency', he also lectures at various public sector training programmes on his specialisation—public crisis management and communications management. Mr Cui also sits on the research and editorial board for the Centre of Public Petition and Social Conflicts in Beijing.

Mr Cui was also a senior consultant for various international companies, such as Hewlett Packard, McDonnell Douglas Aircraft, DuPont, Ogilvy & Mather Group, RADO Watch, American Telephone and Telegraph (AT & T), and the International SOS emergency relief centre in China.

Currently, Mr Cui is involved in the international education and academic research fields, actively promoting and facilitating opportunities for international cooperation on projects related to science and technology, education, culture, investments and businesses. Mr Cui has a degree in Journalism from Renmin University, China and a Master of Business Administration from the University of South Australia.

Lecture on "Cross-Strait Relations between Mainland China and Taiwan"
15 March 2011
Professor Charles Kao
Founder and CEO of Global Views Monthly, Commonwealth Publishing Company

Cross-Strait relations have improved significantly since Ma Ying-jeou assumed presidency in May 2008. Within a month after his inauguration, President Ma restarted dialogue between the mainland-based Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) and the Taiwan-based Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF). Normalisation of bilateral economic ties soon followed with the establishment of direct air, sea and postal links. Cross-Strait commercial relations improved as restrictions on cross-Strait investments were relaxed on both sides, and further reinforced with the signing of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) in June 2010. These developments had profound implications not just for Taiwan’s domestic political development and its status in the international community, but also the security landscape of East Asia.

In this lecture, Professor Charles Kao will share his insights on the dominant forces that have driven these spectacular changes over the past few years. He will discuss the major developments that have taken place since the Kuomintang made its political comeback in 2008 and examine the possible implications for future cross-Strait relations. Can both sides construct a robust framework of engagement that will address Taiwan’s aspiration for international political recognition without aggravating Beijing’s concern over the issue of Taiwan independence? Can Taiwan sustain its deep economic and security ties with Washington while cross-Strait economic integration is being accelerated? Professor Kao will identify the emerging opportunities and challenges as cross-Strait relations sails into unchartered waters at unprecedented speed.

About Professor Charles Kao
Professor Kao is the Founder and CEO of Global Views Monthly, Commonwealth Publishing Company, and Harvard Business Review—Complex Chinese Edition. From 1964 to 1998, Professor Kao taught in the Dept. of Economics, University of Wisconsin--River Falls. He has won several honors, including Outstanding Educator of America Award (1971), Distinguished Professor of the Year Award (1974), and Distinguished Achievement Award in Publishing (Taipei 2002). He has been a member of Committee of 100 (USA) since 1994. Since 1990, Professor Kao has been a senior economic adviser to several Premiers including the incumbent Premier Wu in Taipei. He also serves on a number of boards of non-profit foundations.

Professor Kao is an author of more than ten books on contemporary economic issues with special references to economic integrations in Asia. He also received three National Book Awards in Taipei. Being a scholar, columnist, opinion leader, Professor Kao has been an influential voice, particularly on Greater China.

Lecture on "China’s Economic Reforms: Key Priorities and Critical Challenges Ahead"
30 July 2010
Dr Edwin Lim
Director, China Economic Research and Advisory Programme

Thoughts and Suggestions for China’s 12th Five-Year Plan
Since embarking on market reforms in 1978, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth rates. In the last 30 years, through a gradual but unrelenting integration into the global economy, China’s export- and manufacturing-led growth strategy has enabled its economy to double in size every eight to nine years.

However, China’s pattern of growth is unlikely to be sustained unless a number of emerging challenges are addressed. Many of these challenges – such as growing internal and external imbalances, increasing income and regional inequalities, and the inadequacies of the education, social security and health systems – have been exacerbated by the very pattern and success of China’s development strategy so far. To achieve growth in the post-crisis world, a new set of policy and institutional reforms are necessary.

In this lecture, Dr. Edwin Lim – the head of the China Economic Research Advisory Programme that is advising the Chinese government on its 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) – will identify China’s main reform priorities in the medium-term. In particular, he will identify key challenges in socio-economic governance and discuss how they can best be tackled. He will also propose policy measures to help reduce China’s saving-investment gap, promote domestic consumption, strengthen its social security system, facilitate rural-urban migration and reduce income disparities.

About Dr Edwin Lim
Dr Edwin Lim is Director of the China Economic Research and Advisory Programme (CERAP), a non-profit organization which conducts economic research and provides policy advice to the Chinese policymakers. CERAP, consisting of prominent and experienced international and Chinese economists, provides a forum to bring international perspectives to China’s policymakers and also strengthens the capacity of Chinese economists and research institutions to undertake economic policy analysis through collaboration with eminent economists abroad. CERAP has completed three studies since 2003: Social Security Reform in China: Issues and Options; China and the global economy: Medium-term Issues and options; and Urbanization in China: Policy Issues and Options. At the request of China’s Office of the Central Leading Group on Finance and Economics and the National Development and Reform Commission, CERAP is currently completing a study on "Thoughts and Suggestions for China’s 12th Five Year Plan from an International Perspective." Funding for the work of CERAP has been provided by the Singapore Government, the UK-DFID and the Beijing’s Cairncross Foundation.

Prior to his directorship at CERAP, Dr Lim was Director at the World Bank. He joined the World Bank in 1970 and in the following 30 years, was responsible for the Bank’s work in a number of developing countries, including Ghana, Nigeria, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, India and China. From 1980 to 1990, Dr Lim was a member of the management team that conceived and directed the Bank’s program in China; in particular, he was responsible for the Bank’s economic work in China and for policy dialogue with the Chinese authorities. In 1985, Dr Lim established the World Bank’s office in China and also served as the first Chief of Mission from 1985 to 1990. He returned to headquarters in 1990 when he was appointed a Director, with responsibility for Western Africa.

In 1994, Dr Lim took two years leave from the World Bank to set up China’s first international investment bank, China International Capital Corporation (CICC), in collaboration with China Construction Bank, Morgan Stanley, Singapore’s GIC and other shareholders. He served as CICC’s first CEO. Dr Lim returned to the World Bank in 1996, where he was appointed the first Country Director to be stationed in New Delhi, India. He retired from the Bank in 2002.

Dr Lim was educated at Princeton University (B.A.) and Harvard University (Ph.D. in Economics).

Professor Paul Romer
Senior Fellow, Centre for International Development, Stanford University and Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Non-Resident Fellow, Center for Global Development

Sustaining Rapid Growth in China
Nearly a millennium ago, China was the world leader in economic output and innovation, pioneering important technologies like steel and printing. Shortly thereafter, China began to fall dramatically behind while the west discovered and implemented new technologies. By the 1970s, China’s per capita income was just 3 percent that of the United States.

Why did China lose its lead and fall so far behind the western world for over 500 years? Furthermore, after so many years of stagnation, how did China manage to catch up with the technological frontier in just three decades to reclaim its position as the world’s most dynamic economy? As the world economy enters its third century of growth driven by science and technology, how can China best maximise its opportunities to remain at the forefront of innovation and live up to its long-term growth potential?

In this lecture, Professor Paul Romer – of Stanford University and chief architect of the endogenous growth theory – will provide his insights on these questions and argue the need for China to shift to a new growth model to sustain its progress. Emphasizing the interactive relationships between institutions and the development of ideas, human capital and technology, Professor Romer will argue how China must strengthen its key economic, legal, social and political institutions if it is to promote innovation, enterprise and sustained growth. As its working-age population is projected to peak by 2020, China is under even greater pressure to maximise the productivity and efficiency of its human resources – if only to help pre-empt the potential demographic ‘time-bomb’ on its hands.

About Professor Paul Romer
Professor Paul Romer is Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Centre for International Development (SCID) and the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR), as well as Non-Resident Fellow at the Center for Global Development. Considered one of the leading economists in the world today, his seminal contributions to the field of economics include being the primary developer of the endogenous and new growth theories, which reduces the traditional emphasis on the scarcity of objects and directs attention to the power of new ideas. His work has brought renewed optimism about the potential for growth in both advanced and developing economies. Professor Romer’s current focus is in replicating the success of charter cities to make them an engine of economic growth, arguing that with better rules and institutions, undeveloped nations can be set on a different and better trajectory for growth.

Professor Romer was named one of America’s 25 most influential people by TIME in 1997 and was elected a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (2000). In 2002, he was awarded the Horst Claus Recktenwald Prize in Economics for outstanding achievement and contributions to the field of economics and to the improvement of society as a whole. Professor Romer has contributed to numerous scholarly and popular publications, including American Economic Review, European Economic Review, Journal of Political Economy, The Economist, Forbes and The Fortune Encyclopedia of Economics.

Professor Romer is a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and a Fellow of the Econometric Society. Previously, he taught in Stanford’s Graduate School of Business as the STANCO 25 Professor of Economics and was honored with the Distinguished Teaching Award (1999); he has also taught economics at UC Berkeley, the University of Chicago and the University of Rochester.

Professor Romer has a B.S. in Physics and a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Chicago. In addition to his career in teaching and research, Professor Romer founded Aplia, Inc., now part of Cengage Learning, which develops and applies new student learning technologies.

Lecture on "US-China Relations in the 21st Century: Cooperation or Confrontation?"
5 July 2010
Prof Kenneth Lieberthal
Director, John L. Thornton China Center and Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Global Economy and Development, Brookings Institution

The US-China relationship is probably the most important relationship in the world today. Whether it is tackling climate change, preventing nuclear proliferation, maintaining regional stability, or returning the global economy to a path of stable growth, US-China cooperation is critical. Although both countries have expressed a desire to work closely together on a range of issues, recent events have provided a sharp reminder of how sensitive the relationship can be. US arms sales to Taiwan and its hosting of the Dalai Lama’s visit have riled the Chinese. At the same time, China’s reluctance to join the rest of the UN Security Council in imposing new economic sanctions on Iran and its persistent undervaluation of the RMB have increased pressure on the Obama Administration – by Congress among others – to take a harder stance on China.

Beyond these recent events, there are also longer-term trends that suggest that conflict cannot be ruled out. The relative balance of power between America and China is changing, as are the internal politics of China. Both could lead to a more assertive Chinese foreign policy vis-a-vis the US and its interests in Asia. The current fourth generation of Chinese leaders will also step down in 2012. Succession uncertainties, as the Taiwan Strait crisis of 1996 demonstrated, can lead to heightened tensions – all the more so if the new Chinese leaders misjudge their own strength and underestimate America’s.

Prof Kenneth Lieberthal, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution and a leading scholar on US-China relations, will discuss both current and longer-term prospects for US-China relations, and the implications they will have for Singapore and Asia.

About Prof Kenneth Lieberthal
Prof. Kenneth Lieberthal is Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy and in Global Economy and Development and also is Director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. He is Professor Emeritus at the University of Michigan, where until 2009 he was Arthur F. Thurnau Professor of Political Science and William Davidson Professor of Business Administration.

Prof. Lieberthal served as Special Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs and Senior Director for Asia on the National Security Council from August 1998 to October 2000. His government responsibilities encompassed American policy toward all issues involving Northeast, East, and Southeast Asia. Prof. Lieberthal has consulted widely on Chinese and Asian affairs and serves or has served as a consultant for the U.S. Departments of State, Defense, and Commerce, the World Bank, the Kettering Foundation, the Aspen Institute, the United Nations Association and corporations in the private sector.

Prof. Lieberthal serves on the editorial boards of Asia Policy, China: An International Journal, The China Quarterly, The China Economic Review, Foreign Policy Bulletin, the Journal of Contemporary China and the Journal of International Business Education. He has written and edited fifteen books and monographs and authored about seventy periodical articles and chapters in books.

Lecture on "Emerging Attitudes towards China’s Elites"
5 April 2010
Mr Yang Jin Lin
Host and Commentator, Phoenix Television

In 1978, Deng Xiaoping challenged Mao Zedong’s vision of Communist China. Instead of building a new China that would be socially pure and economically equal, Deng introduced a new catchword, "reform" and a new aphorism, "To get rich is glorious". Deng also eliminated Mao’s emphasis on revolutionary struggles against "class enemies" and underscored economic development and social stability. In just three decades, China has produced numerous high net worth individuals, and has the world’s fifth largest number of households with over US$1m in liquid assets (after the United States, Japan, Britain and Germany), with that number expected to double by 2011. However, these households, which account for 0.1 percent of the total number of households in China, hold 41.4 percent of the country’s total wealth.

In this lecture, Mr Yang Jin Lin, a veteran commentator from Phoenix Television, will talk about the new rich in China: how they turned wealthy, what they do with their wealth and the consequences created by the growing income inequality. Mr Yang will examine the reasons for this phenomenon and assess the social and political implications of transformation that China has witnessed in recent years. Mr Yang will also share his views on why sentiments towards the economic and bureaucratic elites warrant undivided attention from senior policy-makers in China, and what public policies and legal institutions must be put in place to defuse this social tension in order for China to achieve the aim of a harmonious society.

About Mr Yang Jin Lin
Mr Yang is an experienced senior commentator on China's politics, business and economic affairs from the Phoenix Television. He graduated from Xiamen University, and has been working in the mass media industry in Hong Kong. His most well-known program in Phoenix Television is the "Summary of Press". He also writes articles for the Singapore Chinese newspaper "Lian He Zao Bao". In 2009, he hosted a new program, known as "Studying Around Greater China with Yang Jin lin".

Inaugural Lecture on "China's Economic Trajectory: Past, Present, Future"
18 January 2010

Professor Huang Yasheng
Professor of Political Economy and International Management, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Lecture by Prof Huang Yasheng
The Chinese economy has experienced remarkable transformation since China embarked on its market liberalisation and economic modernisation programme more than three decades ago. During the period, the Chinese economy has been transformed from one on the brink of collapse to the world’s third largest economy. The centerpiece of China’s spectacular transformation has been the decision to adopt market-oriented reforms and encourage greater production through privately-owned enterprises. These reforms have enabled huge increases in national income, and lifted millions of Chinese out of poverty. They have also resulted in large inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI). Like the Asian Tigers before her, China has also adopted an export-oriented development strategy, earning her the moniker of being the factory of the world.

The onset of the financial crisis in the 2008 has raised key questions about the sustainability of China’s development strategy of depending on exports and an undervalued exchange rate to drive economic growth. The plunge in global demand sent China’s all powerful economy into a downward spiral. But with the Chinese economy now recovering strongly – thanks in large part to the massive injections of fiscal stimulus – the structural question remains. Will China pursue a more balanced development model that places less emphasis on FDI and exports and more on domestic consumption? In the long run, a more balanced growth strategy that favours domestic consumption could help narrow widening rural-urban income disparities and the unequal pattern of regional development in China. At the international level, a lower rate of savings and higher consumption in China will also be a critical part of any resolution of the global imbalances problem which contributed to the current crisis.

In this lecture, Professor Huang Yasheng will discuss why an FDI-driven and export-oriented growth model may no longer be the best strategy for China. He will review developments of the Chinese economy since the 1980s to demonstrate that the priority given to state-owned enterprises and multi-national companies in some provinces has hindered the growth of local enterprises and resulted in wider income disparities. Prof Huang will also suggest what Chinese policymakers can do to promote more balanced growth and a more diversified economy in the post-crisis era.

About Prof Huang Yasheng
Professor Huang Yasheng is Professor of Political Economy and International Management at Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is known to be an outspoken critic on some of China’s major reform policies and is renowned for his research on China’s economic reforms from the 1980s to 1990s and on comparative studies between China’s and India’s economy.

He has published articles in many publications, including Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Businessweek, McKinsey Quarterly, Forbes, Far Eastern Economic Review, Emerging Markets, and Foreign Policy. He has also published many books. His recent books include Selling China (2003) and Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics (2008). Both of which were positively reviewed. The discussions in his books are very much related to the current economic challenges China is facing today. These include questioning whether the FDI-driven and export-oriented growth model is still relevant to China's growth strategy and what can Chinese policymakers do to promote a more balanced growth and a more diversified economy in the post-crisis era. For China, achieving this is crucial as by giving priority to local enterprises growth, as shown in the 1980s, the widening income disparities that China faces today can significantly be narrowed.

At MIT Sloan School, Professor Huang founded and runs China Lab and India Lab, which aim to help indigenous entrepreneurs in China and India improve their management. He has held or received prestigious fellowships such as National Fellowship at Stanford University and Social Science Research Council-MacArthur Fellowship. He is a member of MIT Entrepreneurship Center, a fellow at Center for Chinese Economic Research and Center for China in the World Economy at Tsinghua University, a fellow at William Davidson Institute at Michigan Business School, a World Economic Forum Fellow, and a non-resident fellow for the OECD’s global development outlook project.

Professor Wang Gungwu
Chairman of the East Asian Institute, NUS

Overview by Prof Wang Gungwu
Professor Wang Gungwu will review the changes that the Chinese economy has experienced in last 150 years – from the disastrous encounters with the western powers in mid-19th century, to the economic devastation during the last years of the Qing, the Warlord Period and the Sino-Japanese War, to the failed attempt to industrialise and the establishment of central planning in the 1950s, and finally to the market liberalisation era of the 1980s.

Professor Wang’s overview lecture will help put China's remarkable economic transformation in recent years in a historical context, and set the stage for contemporary issues and challenges that Professor Huang will address.

About Prof Wang Gungwu
Professor Wang Gungwu is the Chairman of the East Asian Institute and University Professor, National University of Singapore. He is also Emeritus Professor of the Australian National University. Professor Wang has published widely in leading journals. Some of his recent publications include The Chinese Overseas: From Earthbound China to the Quest for Autonomy (2000); Don't Leave Home: Migration and the Chinese (2001); Anglo-Chinese Encounters since 1800: War, Trade, Science and Governance (2003); Divided China: Preparing for Reunification, 883-947 (2007).

Professor Wang is a Commander of the British Empire (CBE); Fellow, and former President, of the Australian Academy of the Humanities; Foreign Honorary Member of the American Academy of Arts and Science; Member of Academia Sinica; Honorary Member of the Chinese Academy of Social Science. He was conferred the International Academic Prize, Fukuoka Asian Cultural Prizes. In Singapore, he is Chairman of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies; Chairman of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at NUS; Vice-Chairman of the Chinese Heritage Centre; Board Member of the Institute of Strategic and Defence Studies at NTU.

Professor Wang received his B.A. (Hons) and M.A. degrees from the University of Malaya in Singapore, and his Ph.D. at the University of London (1957). His teaching career took him from the University of Malaya (Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, 1957-1968, Professor of History 1963-68) to The Australian National University (1968-1986), where he was Professor and Head of the Department of Far Eastern History and Director of the Research of Pacific Studies. From 1986 to 1995, he was Vice-Chancellor of the University of Hong Kong. He was Director of East Asian Institute of NUS from 1997 to 2007.