What the Delphi Oracle can Tell
Us about Futures
The desire to know the future has been a
preoccupation of humankind since time
immemorial, along with its attendant
culture and processes. Those who
sought the wisdom of the Greek oracle
at Delphi, for instance, had to deliberate
carefully on what to ask and how to
phrase the question they would pose to
the sacred oracle.1 Such queries had to
be accompanied by substantial payment
and any pronouncements were regarded
as divine, so this was a serious business.
The "clients" who sought wisdom at
Delphi were trying to manage the
uncertainty which they felt hazarded
their futures. Their consultations were
made with a view to action.
The most famous example of a
Delphic consultation was that which led
to the Battle of Salamis in 480 B.C. The
Athenians were fearful of invasion by the
Persians and they consulted at Delphi.
The three-part forecast they received
was hardly comforting. First, they were
told there would be a "wooden wall"
which would remain unconquered.
Second, the Athenians were told to flee
their city. Third, it was pronounced that
many young men would die near the
island
of Salamis.
The Athenian leaders were dejected
with this prophecy, which seemed
to conclusively portend their defeat.
However, rather than despair, they
engaged in debate on what to make
of this news. Finally, one of their
statesmen, Themistocles, made the case
that the "wooden wall" referred not to
the city walls but to the massed wooden
ships of the Athenian navy. He pointed
out that the prophecy of "many young
men will die" did not necessarily mean
many Greek men. He took the view that
in the face of a larger opposing army, it
was only sensible for the people to flee
the city: the Athenians would fight the
Persians at sea in the narrow straits
off the Salamis and cut their lines
of communication. This is what they
proceeded to do and the Persians were
defeated in the ensuing
sea battle.
This legendary episode suggests
that futures thinking is never a single event
but a process, and one which involves a
serious commitment from the seekers
of foresight in reviewing their strategic
priorities even before embarking on
such an attempt. Furthermore, the
burden is on the "client", in this case
the Athenians, to do most of the work and not on the "consultant" futurist
(the oracle of Delphi). Three stages
which define the futures process can
be identified.
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