Ethos Issue 7, Jan 2010
Opinion: Mainstreaming the Praxis of Foresight:
The UK Example
Calvin Chong and Jeremy Tan
2. NETWORKS ARE IMPORTANT
The UK Government’s emphasis on
wider engagement stands in contrast to
the common notion that foresight is best
suited to mavericks and contrarians,
who can spot strategic issues ahead of
others. On the contrary, it is crucial
for foresight work to harness inputs
and opinions as broadly as possible.
In this sense, picking the right mix of
persons to contribute to a project is just
as important as their area and level of
expertise. This involves maintaining
good working relationships through
networks that are built laterally across
agencies, and also with individuals and
organisations outside of government.
These networks serve as intellectual
checks and balances, and allow for
assumptions to be challenged and
strategies to be stress-tested.
For example, each UK Foresight
project leverages a variety of networks:
other than its lead expert group, the
project also answers to a high-level
stakeholder group, and consults with
think-tanks, universities and private
sector stakeholders when drawing up
inputs and shaping findings. Furthermore, the UK Horizon
Scanning Centre also functions as the
government’s hub for horizon scanning
and foresight expertise, providing
information and capability building
services to other agencies. Besides
conferences, seminars and international
collaboration, the Centre also runs the
Futures Analysts’ Network, which is
a forum for people with an interest in
futures analysis, from both the public
and private sectors, to exchange ideas
and good practices. 3. ENSURE POLICY RELEVANCE
Robust and credible foresight work has
to be relevant to policy and invested with
sufficient management buy-in to ensure
that findings and recommendations are given due consideration and
followed through. Foresight projects
in the UK are carefully chosen to
address cross-departmental policy issues
with action-oriented outcomes. Each
project has to be supported by a lead
government department and its
Minister must agree to chair a high-level
stakeholder group of
senior decision-makers and
budget-holders from relevant
departments, research councils
and other organisations. The
government’s Chief Scientific
Adviser sits on each of these
stakeholder groups as well.
Once buy-in from higher
management and stakeholders is
secured, attention has to be given to
communicating of foresight products
in effective ways. Heavily researched
analysis and complex scenarios need
to be presented in a detailed yet
incisive manner for decision makers
to understand and subsequently take
action. To this end, the UK foresight
projects are crafted to be well signposted,
monitored and regularly updated within
the stakeholders’ communities as part
of the implementation process.
4. MAKE FORESIGHT MAINSTREAM
The praxis of foresight in an organisation
extends beyond the nuts and bolts
of its research activities and even its
integration with strategic planning
processes. Instead, it should be seen as part
of a larger endeavour to institutionalise
and make mainstream habits of mind
that challenge prevailing assumptions,
recognise cognitive biases and examine
issues with a wide horizontal impact
across multiple domains.
The UK’s networked approach is
illustrative of the principle that the
responsibility for foresight should
not fall solely on a dedicated group of
strategic thinkers, practitioners and
horizon scanners; nor should it be
assumed that foresight work would
gain traction without any institutional
backing or centre of expertise.
Cultivating an appreciation of
strategic futures methodologies in
departments has built a stronger culture
of foresight in the UK government. This
is seen in the Foreign and Commonwealth
Office’s (FCO) use of complexity science
in their analyses, and in other agencies
building their own research and horizon
scanning capabilities.
As observed from the UK’s experience,
the explicit goal of a foresight programme
is for public of f icials to think
systematically about the future. Given
the need for public policymaking to
become ever more adroit, adaptive and
astute, such an endeavour is nothing
short of a transformative process to
institutionalise the praxis of foresight at
all levels of government.
Calvin Chong is Assistant Director (Policy
and International Relations) and Jeremy Tan
is Executive (Horizon Scanning Centre) at
the National Security Coordination Centre,
Prime Minister’s Office. This article was the
result of a study trip to the United Kingdom
in February 2009.
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