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Ethos Issue 7, Jan 2010
Phases of Singapore’s Demographic
Development Post-World War II
Koh Eng Chuan
An emerging phase of demographic development brings new challenges
for Singapore.
INTRODUCTION
From a population of 1 million in
1950, Singapore’s resident population,
comprising citizens and permanent
migrants, has grown more than three
and a half times to 3.7 million in 2009
(5.0 million, if foreigners with permits1
are included). Singapore’s demographic
change from the late 1940s can
be differentiated into three phases characterised by distinct population
trends and socioeconomic developments,
with a fourth phase now emerging.
FERTILITY DECLINE REGARDLESS
OF POLICY
Throughout Singapore’s various
demographic phases, direct measures
had been put in place to modify fertility
behaviour. Some have contended that
the anti-natalist policies carried out
by the Singapore Family Planning and
Population Board played an important
role behind our sharply falling fertility,2,3
and some have noted that Singapore was
seen as a "role model for government
fertility control" programmes4 in the
days when the global attention was
on reducing fertility for the sake of
sustainable development. Yet others
have viewed Singapore as having
"succeeded too well", with "unintended
consequences".5 While selected individuals
might have been influenced in their
fertility decisions, it was more likely
that government policies had acted
as a catalyst in hastening a fertility
transition which would have taken place
even without direct intervention.
Three observations support this
view. Firstly, fertility had begun to fall even before the family planning measures were
put in place.6,7 Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
had fallen
from a peak of 6.56 in 1957
to 4.62 in 1965, before the government
set up the Singapore Family Planning
and Population Board in 1966. This
suggests that even prior to Independence,
women were already making a conscious
decision to reduce fertility either through
traditional family planning methods,
or through the limited family planning
services made available by the voluntary
Singapore Family
Planning Association.
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