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Ethos Issue 7, Jan 2010
Phases of Singapore’s Demographic
Development Post-World War II
Koh Eng Chuan
Singlehood proportions are high
at about 13% to 15% for residents aged
40–44 years.21 Proportions of those with
zero or one child among ever-married
resident females are rising. In 2008,
8% of those aged 40–49 years have no
children, while 18% have only one child.
The large increase in the elderly and the
low numbers of children in the local
population will eventually cause strains
at the family level and add pressure
to current social structures. Single
or widowed elderly without children
or near kin may have difficulty even
in engaging and managing domestic
helpers to look after them. The State
may have to be prepared to come in on a
larger scale at some point.
RAISING FERTILITY IS THE MORE
SUSTAINABLE SOLUTION
As with the other earlier phases,
the fourth phase of demographic
development in Singapore will bring
new challenges to policymakers. Raising
fertility would solve its own problems,
and would be a more sustainable long-term
solution. The Prime Minister
announced additional procreation
incentives during the National Day
Rally in August 2008. While a large
increase in fertility to 1.5 remains an
optimistic target, it remains to be seen
how much the population will respond
to the additional procreation incentives,
and whether further measures or social
trade-offs will have to be made.
Dr Koh Eng Chuan is Director of the Income,
Expenditure and Population Statistics
Division in the Department of Statistics,
Ministry of Trade and Industry. He has a
PhD in Demography from the Australian
National University. His areas of interest are
in marriage and fertility studies, as well as
population trends and movements. He is
also a visiting affiliate of the Asia Research
Institute, National University of Singapore.
The views expressed in this article are
his own.
| NOTES |
| 01. |
Includes temporary professional and skilled workers,
domestic workers, foreign students and social visitors with
permits who stay for certain periods of time. |
02.
|
Wan, F. K. and Saw, S. H. "Knowledge, Attitudes and
Practice of Family Planning in Singapore." Studies in Family
Planning 6 (1975):109-112. |
03.
|
Yap, M. T. "Fertility and Population Policy: The
Singapore Experience." Journal of Population and Social
Security (Population), Supplement to Volume 1 (2003): 643-
658. |
04.
|
Lee, S. M., et al. "Fertility Decline and Pronatalist Policy
in Singapore." International Family Planning Perspectives 17
(1991): 65-69+73. |
05.
|
Anderson, B. "Unintended Population Consequences
of Policies." Population and Environment 25 (2004): 377-
390. |
06.
|
Chang, C. T. Fertility Transition in Singapore (Singapore:
Singapore University Press, 1974). |
07.
|
Fawcett, J. T. and Khoo, S E. "Singapore: Rapid
Fertility Transition in a Compact Society." Population and
Development Review 6 (1980): 549-579. |
08.
|
Including tax reliefs and rebates, baby bonuses,
paternity leave, increases in childcare places and subsidies,
paid maternity leave for the third child, increases in the
length of maternity leave, etc. in 1987, 2001 and 2004. |
09.
|
Atoh, M., et al. "The Second Demographic Transition
in Asia? Comparative Analysis of the Low Fertility Situation
in East and South-East Asian Countries." The Japanese
Journal of Population 2 (2004): 42-75. |
10.
|
Fawcett and Khoo (1980), and similarly Atoh, et al.
(2004:47). |
11.
|
Ridker, R. G. "Desired Family Size and the Efficacy of
Current Family Planning Programmes." Population Studies 23 (1969): 279-284. |
12.
|
Lesthaeghe, R. "The Second Demographic Transition
in Western Countries: an Interpretation," in Gender and
Family Change in Industrialised Countries, eds. K. Mason
and A. Jensen (UK: Oxford Clarendon Press, 1995): 17-62. |
13.
|
Van de Kaa, D. J. "Europe’s Second Demographic
Transition." Population Bulletin 42 (1987): 1–57. |
14.
|
McDonald, P. "Theories Pertaining to Low Fertility."
International Union for the Scientific Study of Population
Working Group on Low Fertility. Tokyo, 21-23 March 2001. |
15.
|
Wong, K. S. "DPM’s Speech at the Committee of
Supply. Prime Minister’s Office, Sep 2004. http://www.mha.
gov.sg/news_details.aspx?nid=NDU1-7sGu7w8ImQU%3d,
accessed 28 November 2009. |
16.
|
In the period 2000-2008, Net Migration (187,400)
balanced Natural Increase (181,900). In the near future,
net migration would take over natural increase as the
main source of population growth. Author’s computations
of estimates based on Saw, S. H. Singapore Population in
Transition (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press,
1970) and Reports on Births and Deaths, various years,
Immigration and Checkpoints Authority. |
17.
|
Sources: Reports on Births and Deaths, Immigration
and Checkpoints Authority. Reference to "Ideal Family
Size" from Yap, M.T., "Population Policies and Programs
in Singapore" in Population Policies and Programs in East
Asia, ed. Andrew Mason (Hawaii: East-West Centre, 2001);
reference to "Ideal Family Size 2007" based author’s survey
results based on 754 respondents aged 25 to 39 years. |
18.
|
United Nations Population Division. Replacement
Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing
Populations? (New York: UNDP, 2000). |
19.
|
Ministry of Community Development, Youth and
Sports (MCYS). National Integration Council to Foster Social
Integration. http://www.mcys.gov.sg/MCDSFiles/Press/
Articles/15-2009.pdf, accessed 31 August 2009. |
20.
|
Yeoh noted that social integration concerns may arise
from differences within racial categories as it becomes
"inflected by differences in nationality and history".
For example, the Chinese community now is not going to be
the same as the Chinese community a generation later with
the migrants coming in. Yeoh, B. "Migration, International
Labour and Multicultural Policies in Singapore." Asia
Research Institute Working Paper No 19. February 2004.
http://www.ari.nus.edu.sg/pub/wps.htm |
21.
|
Singapore Department of Statistics 2009. Population
Trends 2009. http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/catalogue.
html#demo, accessed 30 November 2009. |
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