World Cities Summit Issue, Jun 2008

The Growth of Asian Cities
Bindu N. Lohani

As the main economic engines of growth, Asian cities are increasingly challenged to ensure sustainability while reaping the benefits of urbanisation.

In Asia, cities are the backbone of economic growth and central to the effective running of the country. Asian cities in particular have achieved remarkable growth in the last couple of decades, by any standard. There have been several connected drivers that have fuelled this growth. For one, urbanisation brought more and better infrastructure that are vital for business and trade. Urbanisation also set the stage for enormous economic growth for Asian cities. Economic growth meant that more opportunities for employment were available for millions of people, thus reducing the absolute levels of poverty in many cities, as well as the developing country as a whole. In Asia, agriculture-based economies like India have transformed into industrial and service-oriented economies within a span of thirty years, which is half the time it took for economies in large western countries.

The rapid economic growth and urbanisation of Asian cities is expected to continue over the next two decades. As Asian societies and Asian people change their lifestyles, culture and social structures, it is important to keep in mind that cities are, after all, built on natural ecosystems. The soil beneath the concrete buildings, the streams flowing beneath the asphalt roads and the vegetation alongside buildings are all essential parts of a city’s infrastructure. Environmental sustainability should be at the heart of urban management.

THE IMPORTANCE OF ASIAN CITIES
To put into perspective, Asia was predominantly rural in the mid 1960s, with a population of about 1.7 billion, of which only 20% lived in cities. Since then, there has been a massive increase in the number and proportion of Asians living in cities. It is estimated that by 2030, 55% of the regional population will be living in cities.¹ Currently, some 40 million people are being added to Asia’s urban population every year, which is equivalent to 120,000 people a day. The trend is expected to continue. Furthermore, we in Asia have witnessed the emergence of very large urban areas, the megacities, with populations of 10 million or more. It is estimated that by 2010, 14 of the world’s 25 megacities will be in Asia and most will be in the developing countries in Asia. In addition to the megacities, a significant portion of the population will be living in thousands of towns and cities throughout the region where there could be between 50,000 to 10 million people in these towns and cities.^2,3

The importance of Asian cities is evident. They are (i) the focal points of economic activity and the engines for economic growth; (ii) the centres of excellence for education, healthcare, innovation, entrepreneurship, business, commerce, industry, culture and social services; (iii) large markets for all types of products, goods and services; (iv) well-connected with the wider world through all types of transportation, telecommunications and information technology systems; and (v) the primary centres for jobs, employment and livelihood opportunities.

There is strong evidence to suggest that urbanisation enhances productivity and countries with higher levels of urbanisation enjoy higher gross domestic product (GDP) per capita than countries with lower levels of urbanisation. For example, the ratio of city GDP per capita compared to national GDP per capita was found to be 1.9 for Metropolitan Manila, 2.5 for Calcutta, 3.5 for Bangkok, and 3.7 for Shanghai.⁴

In all countries, cities have a greater output per capita than other areas. This explains why income is higher in urban areas, the reason for the mass rural-urban migration, which in turn is good for economic development. Workers moving from low productivity rural areas to higher productivity urban areas increase the average productivity of the country and, consequently, its wealth. However, the ratio of city GDP per capita as compared to national GDP per capita could be even higher if cities could be made to function more efficiently. Higher productivity ratios for cities would bring substantial benefits to the national economies and make major inroads against poverty in both urban and rural areas.

OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES
Rapid urbanisation has brought huge opportunities and benefits to Asians. However, city infrastructure has not been able to keep up with the tremendous economic and population growth in cities. This has brought significant resource constraints, difficulties in access to basic resources, inadequate housing and sanitation, negative impacts on human health, and environmental degradation. These issues have been neglected and under-funded for a long time. For example, Asia’s cities must accommodate an additional 44 million people every year.⁵ However, the unmet urban infrastructural needs in Asia are estimated to be over $60 billion per year for water supply, sanitation, solid waste management, slum upgrading, urban roads and mass transit systems.⁶

Urban activities generate close to 80% of all carbon dioxide (CO₂) as well as significant amounts of other greenhouse gases which contribute to climate change.⁷ Direct sources of greenhouse gas emissions include energy generation, vehicles, industry and the burning of fossil fuels and biomass in households. Let us take a look at one of these sources: vehicles. Even under the most optimistic current scenarios for managing the expansion of road traffic, CO₂ emissions from the transport sector will triple in Asia over the next 25 years.⁸ The main reason for this increase is the increase in the number of vehicles currently evident and expected in Asian cities over the next two to three decades. Emissions from vehicles and transport equipment contribute not only to CO₂ emissions, but also to local and regional pollution problems through the emission of carbon monoxide, lead, sulphur oxides and nitrogen oxides. Transport is not simply the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, it is also the fastest growing source. With the vehicle fleet in Asia doubling every five to seven years, there is an urgent need to come up with cost-effective CO₂ emission reduction measures for transport. The current trend is neither manageable nor sustainable.

If we look at other environmental issues such as water and wastewater, solid waste management, slum management and air pollution control, we will come to the similar conclusion that there needs to be a change in thinking, and in some cases, even a radical shift in the management of cities. Only then can Asian cities be sustainable and liveable. Hence the question: how can we turn Asian cities into environmentally sustainable cities?  

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