World Cities Summit Issue, Jun 2008

Human Development and Urbanisation
Richard Leete

A critical difference between past and present urban transitions is the impact of globalisation on city growth patterns.

Cities are the main beneficiaries of globalisation—the increasing integration and interdependence of the world’s economies. People follow jobs, which follow investment and economic activities. Most are increasingly concentrated around dynamic urban areas of all sizes, but especially capital cities.

The nature of city growth has changed. In recent decades, two patterns of change have been most salient: the speed of urban growth in less developed countries, and the growth of megacities. While still a major feature, megacities (those with populations of 10 million or more) have not grown to the sizes once projected, accounting for just 9% of the total urban population.¹

There is a high correlation between level of urbanisation and development. The countries and cities of Southeast Asia span a wide range, with Singapore, Brunei Darussalam² and Malaysia³ being the most advanced, and Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam the least advanced. All countries of the region are expected to attain higher levels of urbanisation and human development. This essay reviews urban population growth and its linkages with human development⁴ and the achievement of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in the countries of Southeast Asia.

POPULATION GROWTH AND THE NEW WAVE OF URBANISATION
The world is at the point of a significant urban transition. In 2008, the world’s urban population numbers, totalling over 3.3 billion, have surpassed the size of rural populations. At the global level, all future population growth will occur in towns and cities, 95% of it in the developing world. These population trends follow expectations given the structural transition of employment away from agriculture and towards urban manufacturing and service industries. Both the number and proportion of urban dwellers will continue to rise rapidly (Figure 1). By 2030, the world’s urban population is projected to grow by 48% to 4.9 billion. In contrast, the world’s rural population is expected to decline.¹

Within Southeast Asia, levels of urbanisation have grown sharply over the past 25 years and are expected to continue to rise, particularly for Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines (Figure 1). The increases in urban population in the countries of Southeast Asia are part of a second wave of demographic, economic and urban transitions, much bigger and faster than the first in Europe and North America that began in the 18th century. These latter two regions experienced the first demographic transition, the first industrialisation and the first wave of urbanisation.

FIGURE 1. ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED URBANISATION, SOUTHEAST ASIAN COUNTRIES, 1980, 2005 AND 2030. (SOURCE OF DATA: UNITED NATIONS DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL AFFAIRS, WORLD URBANISATION PROSPECTS: THE 2005 REVISION⁵)

In the past half-century, the less developed countries have begun similar transitions. In both instances, population and economic growth have propelled the urban transition, but the speed and scale of urbanisation today are far greater and the challenges more daunting. Rapidly expanding cities require new infrastructure and communications—including power, water, roads, and commercial and productive facilities—more urgently than cities during the first wave of urbanisation did. Economies must be competitive in terms of infrastructure and technology if they are to succeed in the globalised world of the 21st century.

The second wave of urbanisation is also differentiated by the diminished role of international migration that, in the first wave, had relieved the pressure on cities in the developing countries. Contemporary urbanisation, this time in less developed countries, is driven primarily by natural increase and rural-to-urban migration.

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