Ethos Perspectives
Global Warming: A New Political
Climate for Change?
Reference 4: "Impacts of Climate
Change: A System Vulnerability Approach to Consider the Potential
Impacts to 2050 of a Mid-Upper Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenario"
by Nils Gilman, Doug Randall and Peter Schwartz
The Global Business Network
(GBN) report departs from traditional climate change assessments
to adopt a ‘system-vulnerability’ approach (i.e.,
systems that are already generally vulnerable). It focuses
on a varied range of systems, from ecosystems, water availability,
urban forms, civic order, to traditional political coalitions,
role of the state, the insurance sector, tourism and the global
pop-politics of rumours.
The report makes four notable observations
about the impacts of climate change: (1) the role of the state
will be questioned and lead to new political coalitions being
created to address social risk sharing; (2) the insurance
sector may exit the market if pricing risk profiles becomes
difficult, placing additional burden upon the state to cover
clean-up costs; and (3) public opinion will depend not on
the actual threat of climate change, but rather on the perception
of the threat of climate change.
Finally, the report recommends building
quantitative models and scenarios that formulate the interrelationships
and feedback loops connecting various systems to explore how
disruptions may cascade or reverberate between them.
Gilman, Nils, Doug Randall and Peter Schwartz.
Impacts of Climate Change:
A System Vulnerability Approach to Consider
the Potential Impacts to 2050 of a Mid-Upper Greenhouse Gas
Emissions Scenario. Global Business Network:January 2007.
http://www.gbn.com/climatechange/ImpactsOfClimateChange.pdf
(accessed May 01, 2007).
Comments/Analysis
The above reports call for immediate
action to mitigate climate change effects in the face of increasingly
irrefutable evidence for their impact on biophysical and socio-economic
landscapes. Various ameliorative approaches at the policy-technology
nexus have been proposed, with increasing onus on developing
or non-Annex I countries to play a greater role in the global
action to address climate change.
For Asia, the spotlight for action is on
leveraging upon low-tech options to reduce deforestation,
promote energy efficiency use on the ground, and adopt climate
change adaptation strategies. Economic giants in the region,
China and India, and other developing economies are already
heeding the warning signals from recent climate-related disasters.
Countries in Southeast Asia are rapidly
pursuing alternative energy options such as nuclear energy
and biofuels, but these may be misplaced in view of persistent
environmental and governance instability, as well as questions
about the sustainable development of biofuels (especially
palm oil on peatland). Much more could be done to encourage
Southeast Asian nations to treat climate change not just as
an energy security issue, but as a human security issue, and
to connect more closely to initiatives spearheaded by the
international community, such as the U.N.’s Clean Development
Mechanism.
Singapore has been promoting alternative
energy from an industry development perspective. Challenges
remain for the government to balance this approach with public
education and civil society partnership. Opportunities exist
for the country to take up regional leadership for countries
in Asia to participate in the negotiations for a post-2012
Kyoto accord. A possible avenue is the promotion of Corporate
Social Responsibility (CSR) and carbon trading, as multinational
corporations appear open to adopt such initiatives if regulatory
conditions support them.
Prepared by:
Chua Hearn Yuit
Associate Researcher, Institute of Policy Development, CSC
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