Ethos Perspectives
Cities of the Future
Introduction
The current rate of urbanisation globally is unprecedented.
A United Nations report forecasts that 3.3 billion people
(50% of the world’s population) will live in cities
in 2008 and 5 billion in 2030. Cities will face the traditional
challenge of managing economic growth, social polarisation
and environmental concerns but the exact nature of this balancing
act will differ from that of earlier waves of urbanisation.
First, environmentally sustainable development
is becoming increasingly significant as consensus on climate
change grows. Cities are key to any solution as they are responsible
for most greenhouse gas emissions and consume a disproportionate
amount of energy. However, countries and cities at early stages
of development tend to favour economic growth over the environment.
Second, much urban growth is taking place
in less developed countries, especially in Africa and Asia.
They will find the challenges of urbanisation particularly
acute and run the risk of developing megacities with large
numbers of poor people.
Third, global competition for talent is
intensifying. The ability of cities to attract and retain
talent is core to their success. While brain gain can spur
a city’s economy, it can also pose new social challenges
for policymakers as the demographic profile changes. Social
polarisation remains a deep concern for cities.
This issue of Ethos Perspectives highlights
three areas in the wide-ranging discussion about cities.
Reference 1: "State of World
Population 2007: Unleashing the Potential of Urban Growth"
This report by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)
forecasts that there will be some 5 billion people living
in urban areas by 2030. It estimates that in 2008, more than
half of the world's human population (or 3.3 billion people)
will already be living in towns and cities. The first wave
of urbanisation took place from 1750 to 1950 and produced
the industrialised cities in Europe and America. Now the world
is experiencing a second wave of urbanisation, in the less
developed regions—which UNFPA anticipates will account
for 80% of urban growth in 2030. The speed and size of urban
expansion mean that governments will have to take far-sighted,
pre-emptive actions to exploit the advantages of urban growth
and minimise its negative consequences. The real concern will
not be the rapid rate of urban population growth but the absolute
size of the increment. The question for policymakers is likely
to be the scale of urban expansion and what needs to be done
now to prepare for it adequately.
The report makes this key observation: If
governments do not pay attention to deteriorating social and
environmental conditions that are part and parcel of urban
growth, poor people will make up a large part of future cities
and towns. It advocates balancing the productive potential
of cities and human cost. Policymakers and civil society are
urged to understand and accept the demographic and social
composition of urban growth. The report concludes that cities
are powerful entities that have the propensity to create both
the problems caused by urbanisation as well as the very solutions
to mitigate them.
United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA),
State of World Population 2007: Unleashing the Potential
of Urban Growth (USA: UNFPA, 2007).
http://www.unfpa.org/swp/2007/english/introduction.html
(accessed 4 Sep 2007).
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