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Ethos Perspectives
Possible Discontinuities in the Post-Crisis World

Conclusion
As a country that has experienced both the benefits and ill-effects of globalisation, Singapore must continue to navigate its choppy waters. The world’s ability to digest and adapt to the key discontinuities highlighted above will determine whether the next phase of development will be characterised by a different form of globalisation or a dark period of de-globalisation. Singapore has to stay nimble and adapt to global changes given its size and lack of natural resources. In the face of possible drastic discontinuities, a strategic rethink of the Government’s fundamental roles, strategies and internal capabilities may be in order, which may include honing in public officers the instinct to identify and anticipate critical uncertainties and their potential implications for our operating environment.
Prepared by:
Godwin Tang
Senior Strategist
Strategic Policy Office, Public Service Division, Prime Minister’s Office
Valerie Yuen
Senior Strategist
Strategic Policy Office, Public Service Division, Prime Minister’s Office
| NOTES |
| 01. |
Nye, Joseph S. "Which Globalisation Will Survive?", Project Syndicate, 2009. |
| 02. |
Rodrik, Dani, "A De-Globalised World?", Project Syndicate, 2009. |
| 03. |
Ferguson cites how China is the net lender to the US’s debts, which in turn allows the US to support China’s export-dependent economy. Niall Ferguson, "What Chimerica Hath Wrought", The American Interest, January – February 2009. |
| 04. |
"Decoupling 2.0", The Economist, May 2009. |
| 05. |
"Uncoupling Asia: Myth and Reality", Asian Development Outlook, Asian Development Bank, 2007. |
| 06. |
"Searching for a new source of global demand growth", Deutsche Bank Global Markets Research, December 2008. |
| 07. |
MENA economies are rich with capital and feedstock (oil, gas, petrochemicals and basic inputs for heavy industry) but lack labour, whereas Asian economies have abundant labour, less capital and scarce feedstock. In addition, Gulf States have also been slowly developing state-owned multinational enterprises aimed at Asian markets in sectors such as logistics, heavy industry and telecommunications. Steffen Hertog, "Secular Trends in Gulf Geo-Economics", Second Franco-Singapore Conference on the Impact of the Middle East on Southeast Asia and Europe, December 2008. |
| 08. |
Bhaskaran, Manu "The Crisis and Beyond", Asian Economic Outlook, December 2008. |
| 09. |
The risk of protectionism, albeit in the guise of environmental or other well-meaning laws, is also likely due to projected higher energy costs and scarce strategic resources. |
| 10. |
Notwithstanding the dominance of free-market capitalism, privatisation had been practised unevenly across developed and emerging economies. While developed economies such as the US and Europe had been much more aggressive in adopting free-market capitalism, emerging economies such as China, Russia and India were operating economies which had relatively more direct state influence alongside privatisation efforts. |
| 11. |
Bremmer, Ian, "State Capitalism Comes of Age: The End of the Free Market?", Foreign Affairs, May / June 2009. |
| 12. |
"Hard to Swallow – Coca Cola and China", The Economist, March 2009. |
| 13. |
Gilpin, Robert, Global Political Economy – Understanding the International Economic Order (New Jersey, USA: Princeton University Press, 2001). |
| 14. |
"G20 Summit: Global Financial Crackdown is Cost of Solving Crisis", The Telegraph, April 2009. |
| 15. |
"G8 Ministers endorse global financial regulation", The Guardian, June 2009. |
| 16. |
Volvz, Ulrich, "Asian Monetary Fund, Take Two", Far Eastern Economic Review, June 2008. |
| 17. |
The Business Times, June 2009. |
| 18. |
"Singapore’s star rises as Switzerland stumbles", International Herald Tribune, December 2008. |
| 19. |
"Global Trends 2025", National Intelligence Council, 2008. |
| 20. |
Huntington, Samuel, "Global Perspectives on War and Peace or, Transiting a Uni-Multi-Polar World", American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research Bradley Lecture Series. |
| 21. |
The phrase, "the rise of the rest", is used by Fareed Zakaria in his book The Post-American World to describe the "catching up" of emerging powers such as China, Russia and India. |
| 22. |
Haass, Richard N., The Reluctant Sheriff: The United States after the Cold War (USA: Council on Foreign Relations, 1997). |
| 23. |
Haass, Richard N., "The Age of Non-Polarity", Foreign Affairs, June 2008. |
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