Ethos Perspectives

Emerging Strategic Issues and Wildcards

The ESIs that have been articulated can then be presented on a set of Emerging Issue Cards, which should highlight what was new about the issue, why it mattered to the organisation, and what concrete data or evidence pointed to the ESI’s plausibility.

The third step, "Prioritising Emerging Issues" can be used to identify the key issues that will require action by decision-makers. The prioritisation process can be done by circulating the list of ESIs to diverse individuals to vote on the possible impact and likelihood of each issue. Through this step, an actionable collection of ESIs can de distilled for presentation to decision-makers, as well as to complement existing strategic planning processes.

Key Lessons from the ESI Process
The ESI process highlights the need for a systematic approach to analyse and categorise emerging issues and wildcards. This systematic approach is critical to:

• Manage the complexity of ESIs by distilling their core messages
• Disentangle complex and interwoven issues into their distinct elements
• Consider implications that could be otherwise obscured by complexity
• Minimise the effects of individual cognitive biases, among both participants and decision-makers
• Provide a foundation for acting in response to the ESIs, even in the absence of concrete future data

At the same time, while it is important to have a robust system and process, it is equally crucial that a core set of capabilities and competencies is built up within the Public Service. The competencies required to formulate a comprehensive set of ESIs range from creative thinking and intellectual versatility in idea generation, to skills in facilitation as well as writing and oral communication, so that the issues are crafted and calibrated for maximum impact with decision-makers. Developing these capabilities will require both formalised and structured training, as well as organisational buy-in to ensure they are meaningfully applied.

Finally, it is important to have a diverse network of thinkers to tap on. The network should comprise members with diverse global perspectives, unconventional thinkers who are willing to challenge current orthodoxies, as well as experts who are able to provide fresh insight and ideas from different disciplines. The diversity afforded by such networks will offer new ideas, as well as new perspectives on existing ideas, both of which will be critical in nudging our agencies to consider how the great events of tomorrow could prove challenging, even today.

Queries on the Emerging Strategic Issues and Wildcards Project can be directed to PSD_SPO@psd.gov.sg

Prepared by:
Bernard Toh
Strategist
Strategic Policy Office, Prime Minister’s Office

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